The media is running with the narrative Joe Biden is the odds on favorite to win the Presidential election. But, President Donald Trump is gaining momentum doing what he does best, hitting the road. Over the next few weeks we will take a look at several different paths for President Trump to secure 270 electoral college votes on Nov. 3rd.
Real Clear Politics give Trump 125 electoral college votes right now based on state solidly backing the President. Based on that math, POTUS needs to win 145 more to secure a second term.
Thursday, President Trump is stopping in North Carolina to talk health care. The latest polls show the state is close. One poll has Biden up 2. In another poll, Trump is up 1. If Trump wins NC like he did in 2016 he'll pick up 15 points.
POTUS also hosts a rally in Florida on Thursday. The latest polls have Trump up four there. Florida is a big state on election day with 29 points.
Add in Texas with 38 electoral college votes where polls say Trump is up 5. If Trump wins FL, NC and TX he'll be at 207.
Trump is up 2 in Georgia. That's another 16. Now, POTUS is at 223.
Ohio and Pennsylvania are going to be close. Trump won them both in 2016. The latest polls say Biden is up. In Biden is up 1 in Ohio, 4 in PA. If Trump can repeat 2016, he'd be up to 263.
Four years ago Hillary Clinton won Nevada by 27,202 votes. If Trump can flip Nevada this year (scarce polls say Biden is up 4), he'd add 6 to this hypothetical scenario. His total with NC, FL, TX, GA, OH, PA, and NV would put him at 269.
Maine could be Trump's saving grace in this scenario.
Maine's 2nd Congressional District separates their Electoral College vote from the state's total. Trump won that 1 Electoral College vote there in 2016. Additionally, Maine is moving towards a ranked-choice voting system in November's Presidential election.
Reason Magazine explains how it will work:
In ranked-choice voting, citizens aren't asked to just choose a single candidate. They are permitted to rank the candidates from most to least favorite. In order to win a ranked-choice vote, a candidate is required to earn a majority of the votes (more than 50 percent), not just a plurality. In the event no candidate gets a majority of the votes, the candidate with the fewest votes is tossed out of the running. Then the votes are tallied again, but for voters whose favorite was just tossed out, their second choice now counts as their vote. This continues until one candidate has earned at least 50 percent of the votes.
Wouldn't that be something?
Next week, we'll take a look at Trump's path to victory if he loses Ohio or PA. Without one of those states, POTUS can still win a second term.
In this scenario Trump would win NC, FL, TX, GA, OH, PA, NV and the 2nd Congressional District in ME. That equals 270.